What’s Driving Toronto & Area Housing Market Surge (This Time)

Why momentum is swinging back to the regions - and types of homes - that were hit hardest in last few years.

Home sales figures for the Greater Toronto Area in October showed sales volumes up 13% over last October, the seventh month in a row of double digit sales growth.

Average prices increased by 6% while inventory levels declined to just 1.8 months of available inventory – partly driven by strong sales but also by a 10% decline in new listings.

The Bank of Canada is leaving its key interest rate unchanged and is pointing to increased uncertainty about the timing of future rate hikes following the economy’s abrupt deceleration in late 2018.

The central bank’s trend-setting interest rate is staying at 1.75 per cent for a third-straight policy announcement _ a stretch that comes after governor Stephen Poloz introduced five rate hikes between mid-2017 and last fall.

In recent years, Toronto’s condo market has been a story of rising prices, rising rents, limited supply and a decoupling from the detached market. And as analysts and developers look at 2019 there are signs the market could get rougher still for new buyers, builders and renters

TORONTO, January 4, 2019 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported a total of 77,426 residential transactions through TREB's MLS® System in 2018.  This result represented a 16.1 per cent decline compared to 92,263 sales reported in 2017.  Total new listings entered into TREB's MLS® System were down by 12.7 per cent over the same period to 155,823.

“Let’s drop the pretense,” says Douglas Porter, the chief economist at Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO)(NYSE:BMO). “The Toronto housing market, and the many cities surrounding it, are in a housing bubble.” Later in the same report, he commented that Toronto home prices have seen “the fastest increase since the late 1980s, a period pretty much everyone can agree was a true bubble.”

December 5, 2018 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced the continuation of moderate price growth in November 2018 compared to November 2017. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 2.7 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price was up by 3.5 per cent year-over-year to $788,345.